Of political whiskers and Plainfield

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Two weeks to go and Menendez has yet to break away.

As you can see from Friday's PoliticsNJ chart above, the Wall Street Journal/Zogby poll has them still at a statistical dead heat. The closely-watched nonpartisan Cook Report has it in the 'tossup' column once more, though on Sunday Charlie Cook seemed to change his mind somewhat.

The stars were out this weekend for both candidates, as covered by both the Ledger ("Sens.Clinton and McCain rally in N.J. for Menendez and Kean") and the NY Times ("Tight Race Draws Political Superstars"). The Courier only picked up the AP feed ("Political stars show up for Kean, Menendez").

PoliticsNJ's 'Wally Edge' column pointed out Menendez' apparent -- dare PT say it? -- flip-flop on whether he supported Joe Lieberman or Ned Lamont when he spoke before a Jewish women's forum at MetroWest last Wednesday. As one of the comments on the post mentions, Lieberman supporters evidently read it as SUPPORT for Joe, and posted Menendez' comments as such on their blogs.

Actually, it seems to have been a flip-flop-flip as Menendez apparently tried to wriggle out of looking like he was simply pandering for the suburban Essex Jewish vote. An elected official pander?! Mon dieu!

The NY Times article ("A Nod to Lieberman [for a While, at Least]") illustrated the attempt to spin the news.

Paul Mulshine was even less charitable in his Sunday Ledger piece ("Menendez lacks good liar's skills"), outright calling Menendez a liar and detailing exactly how the matter went down -- both at the MetroWest forum and in the Senator's spin on it to the NY Times afterward.

As for Kean, Mulshine says, he didn't LIE (he's too inarticulate) but he sure PANDERED --

"A cynic might note that Kean, in his presentation, pandered to the audience on the question of Israel every bit as much as Menendez did. This is certainly the case. But Kean didn't lie. He lacks the skill to do so. Kean is so inarticulate that even telling the truth is difficult for him. But that may well turn out to be an attribute in a race against Menendez."

Meanwhile, Sunday's Ledger carried a Tom Moran piece ("Like father, unlike son") in which he pointed out that Kean Junior walks a darker side of the street than his father, pointing out that Kean Senior drew up short of calling Menendez crooked, only saying that he comes from a "politics of corruption." Christopher Christie might be pardoned if he thought about how people who live in glass houses should be careful throwing stones as he read THOSE remarks.

Not that Menendez' supporters were asleep at the switch. Plainfield's own Dottie Gutenkauf blasted Kean Junior in a letter in Sunday's Courier.

Also on Sunday, Tim Russert had Bob Novak, Charlie Cook, David Broder and John Harwood among the guests on his Meet The Press (complete transcript here).

As they measured up the chances for Dem or GOP success in races nationwide, the focus settled on New Jersey as a key race (key sections underlined) --

MR. NOVAK: They need six. The, the races that really are, are quite competitive and decisive will be Tennessee, Virginia...

MR. RUSSERT: And Missouri.

MR. NOVAK: ...and Missouri.

MR. RUSSERT: And if they won all those, it’d be seven.

MR. NOVAK: That’s right. Those, those three, three states are, are extremely close and I would say right now, in all three of those, I would give the edge right now to the, to the Republicans. I wouldn’t bet a lot of money on it. I, I think very—New Jersey’s very interesting because Menendez has proved a very poor candidate, a very unstable candidate. And if he can survive, appointed senator in that state against Tom Kean Jr., that, that will mean this is really some Republican—some Democratic year.

MR. HARWOOD: In all three of those states, one of the key dynamics is the rural turnout vs. the big city turnout. And in Tennessee, is there a hidden white vote against an African-American candidate?

MR. RUSSERT: David Broder, if the Democrats ever won six seats, which would mean control of the Senate, but then lost New Jersey, how would they feel that Wednesday morning?

MR. BRODER: They would be very upset with Governor Corzine for the choice that he had made on the appointment of that—of his successor.

MR. RUSSERT: Charlie Cook, you scrubbed these states, these numbers. Looking at those seven Senate seats, tell us about them.

MR. COOK: Well, I think Pennsylvania, Santorum; Mike DeWine, Ohio; boy, they’re just way, way, way, way, way down. Boy, it’s really hard to see them, them make it up. Burns, I think Burns is going to lose, but the margin isn’t nearly as wide as the first two. Chafee, that’s—it’s closer, but Chafee is behind. You know, I think it’s more likely than not Democrats pick up that one. That gets you to four.

And next is—OK, what happens next. Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia, Missouri, gosh, it’s, it’s really close. Maybe McCaskill ahead a tiny bit more than behind, but it’s close. Then as John said, those rural areas help—how bad—how far are they going to go for Republicans. Tennessee, absolutely right. I mean, Ford’s been ahead, but it’s been closing. Corker pulling up. Virginia, George Allen is up a little bit, but I think if a feather landed on his head, it’d probably knock him out. And New Jersey, two weeks ago, I thought Kean, the Republican, was going to win. Now, Menendez has pulled back up and Republicans don’t have the money, ironically, to, to spend to really compete in New Jersey."

Then there is the SILVER SPOON factor, as a Ledger story ("Class emerges as battle line in race") pointed out on Sunday.

Though Menendez has far more money to spend in the closing two weeks, can it be that the SILVER SPOON will be the SILVER BULLET?

Which all boils down to the NUMBERS, as PT has been saying for weeks.

And it's likely to be the URBAN numbers that will make the difference.

So, the heat is still on the Dem machines in New Jersey's cities to drag those voters to the polls.

And if it's a win or a loss by a whisker, will that whisker be Plainfield's?

-- Dan Damon

Note: Workers from Plainfield's Dem HQ showed up Saturday to ask to place signs in front of PT's house. Signs for the local candidates were offered, but no offer was made to place a Menendez sign.

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